Nigeria’s non-oil export sector delivered a standout performance in 2025, reaching a historic $6.1 billion, an 11.5% increase from $5.46 billion in 2024, according to the Nigerian Export Promotion Council (NEPC). Export volumes climbed to 8.02 million metric tonnes (up 10% from 7.29 million), covering 281 different products shipped to 120 countries. This diversification push is increasingly anchored in Africa, where intra-African trade showed promising momentum amid AfCFTA implementation.
Key highlights include a reported 14% rise in exports to African countries in the first half of 2025 (per National Bureau of Statistics and related reports), with shipments reaching 36 African nations (11 in ECOWAS and 25 others). Total intra-African non-oil value stood at around $478.2 million for the year, with ECOWAS markets alone at $271.255 million (despite a 13.08% dip due to Sahel exits from the bloc). Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire ranked among global top-20 destinations, underscoring West Africa’s enduring pull.
The Federal Ministry of Industry, Trade and Investment (FMITI)‘s Nigeria AfCFTA Achievements Report 2025 frames this as part of broader gains: ratification of the Digital Trade Protocol (Nigeria first in Africa), gazetting provisional tariff concessions, publishing the continent’s first five-year AfCFTA implementation review, launching air cargo corridors, and securing hosting rights for major events like the Intra-African Trade Fair 2027 and Creative Africa Nexus 2026.
These developments signal that AfCFTA, creating a single market of 1.3+ billion people and $3.4 trillion GDP, is translating into tangible intra-African growth for Nigeria. This article analyzes the 2025 surge, extracts lessons for exporters, projects 2026 trends, and offers practical insights to capitalize on the momentum.
Key Drivers of the 2025 Intra-African Trade Surge
Several factors fueled the upward trajectory:
- AfCFTA Implementation Milestones
- Provisional tariff schedules gazetted, enabling duty-free/reduced access on 90%+ of goods.
- Digital Trade Protocol ratification opens services and e-commerce channels.
- First five-year review published evidence-based accountability boosting confidence.
- Guided Trade Initiative (GTI) expansions facilitated pilot shipments (e.g., agro-processed, ceramics, shea to Kenya/Egypt).
- Policy & Institutional Push
- NEPC’s focus on value addition, SME inclusion, and clusters reduced rejects and scaled production.
- Air cargo corridors cut freight costs 50–75% to East/Southern Africa, aiding time-sensitive exports.
- 774 LGA mapping identified local products, decentralizing supply for regional chains.
- Commodity & Market Dynamics
- Top performers (cocoa/derivatives, urea, cashew, sesame) found ready buyers in Africa amid food security needs and urbanization.
- ECOWAS resilience (Ghana/Côte d’Ivoire top destinations) despite Sahel disruptions.
- Broader Africa (25 non-ECOWAS countries) absorbed growing volumes.
- External Context
- Global fragmentation (e.g., protectionism) nudged businesses toward regional alternatives.
- Afreximbank’s trade finance doubling target ($40B by 2026) supported flows.
The surge, while modest as a share of total exports (approximately 7–8% intra-African non-oil), marks acceleration from historically low intra-African trade (approximately 16% continent-wide).
Key Lessons from the 2025 Surge
- Value Addition Drives Preference Gains: Processed goods (e.g., cocoa butter, cashew kernels) qualified easier for rules of origin, enjoying tariff cuts. Raw exports faced limitations; processors captured higher margins and markets.
- Regional Focus Yields Quick Wins: ECOWAS remains core (despite dips), with Ghana/Côte d’Ivoire proving reliable. Non-ECOWAS growth (e.g., East/Southern via air corridors) shows diversification potential.
- Infrastructure & Digital Reforms Matter: Air corridors and digital protocol reduced barriers; logistics still a drag, but targeted fixes amplified impact.
- SME Inclusion Accelerates Growth: NEPC workshops/clinics (e.g., Ondo 2026) equipped small players; WEIDE Fund and incentives broadened participation.
- Policy Consistency Builds Momentum: FMITI/NEPC’s coordinated approach (reviews, hosting bids) positioned Nigeria as AfCFTA leader.
Projections for 2026: Continued Surge with Tailwinds NEPC projects a “strong 2026” with priorities like deeper capacity building, expanded clusters, SME mainstreaming, value addition, solid minerals governance, and market diversification. Intra-African non-oil exports could rise 20–30%+ if:
- GTI scales with more pilots and buyer matchmaking.
- Air corridors expand (Abuja/Kano terminals).
- Digital trade grows post-ratification.
- Hosting events (CANEX 2026, IATF 2027) attract investment/partners.
- Funding (AFREXIMBANK, BOI) doubles intra-African finance.
Challenges persist: NTBs, logistics costs (30–40% of value), currency volatility. But reforms (customs digitalization, PAPSS payments) mitigate risks.
What This Means for Nigerian Exporters
- Target Intra-African Markets Aggressively: Start with ECOWAS (Ghana, Côte d’Ivoire), expand to Kenya/South Africa via GTI/air corridors.
- Prioritize Processed Goods: Align with RoO for preferences; invest in clusters.
- Leverage Support: NEPC registration, CoO applications, workshops, funding (WEIDE, AFREXIMBANK).
- Monitor & Adapt: Track NTBs via AfCFTA platforms; use digital tools for visibility.
Conclusion
The 2025 surge, 14% intra-African growth amid $6.1B non-oil record, proves AfCFTA is delivering for Nigeria. Lessons in value addition, regional focus, and policy execution set the stage for stronger 2026 gains.
Exporters: Register with NEPC, assess RoO, target GTI, and scale processed products. As an Export Advisory expert, I help navigate this. DM for market intelligence, certification guidance, or strategy sessions. Let’s ride the intra-African wave in 2026!